Morgan Stanley: Sodium-ion Batteries May Spark a “New Oil Age”

2026-07-11 | Calvin

Recently, Morgan Stanley released a report declaring that the "era of sodium-ion batteries" is the "New Oil Age." The investment bank believes that in an AI-driven, electricity-intensive world, sodium-ion batteries address the critical bottleneck at the intersection of energy security and artificial intelligence.

The report projects that sodium-ion batteries will capture approximately 2% of the global battery deployment market by 2027, surge to a 20% share (830 GWh deployed) by 2030, and reach 37% (2.4 TWh deployed) by 2035, with an optimistic scenario of 3.7 TWh. This growth is expected to catalyze approximately $800 billion in new investments.

Why are sodium-ion batteries elevated to the stature of "new oil"? Morgan Stanley argues that the disruption brought by sodium batteries will encompass the entire energy industry and global infrastructure upgrades. The power bottleneck in the AI era is becoming increasingly pronounced, and energy security is beginning to hold the same strategic importance as oil security once did. Demand from data centers and grid-scale energy storage is accelerating the commercial adoption of sodium-ion technology.

Core Insight: According to Morgan Stanley, the primary requirements for AIDC (AI Data Center) energy storage are not high energy density, but rather low cost, long cycle life, extreme safety, wide operating temperature range, and stable raw material supply. In all these aspects, sodium-ion batteries demonstrate clear advantages over LFP (lithium iron phosphate) batteries.

In other words, AI demands energy storage, and sodium batteries are better suited for AIDC storage. Therefore, sodium resources carry strategic significance similar to oil. The energy competition of the past revolved around oil and natural gas; the future may pivot around soda ash, salt, and sodium.

In April of this year, CATL and Hyperstrong signed a three-year contract for a total of 60 GWh of sodium-ion battery orders. More recently, at The smarter E Europe, CATL officially launched the "TENER" sodium-ion battery energy storage system, featuring a system capacity of 3 MWh, a design life of 25–30 years, and a no-fire guarantee even when the overcharge threshold SOC exceeds 140%.

Robin Zeng, Chairman of CATL, stated at the 2026 Summer Davos Forum that the company's sodium battery storage shipment target for this year is set at 1 GWh, with plans to scale up overall sodium battery production capacity to exceed 100 GWh within the next three to five years.

Cost remains the decisive factor for mass adoption. Currently, the cost of sodium batteries has dropped to ¥0.45/Wh, narrowing the gap with LFP batteries to just ¥0.10/Wh. With scaled production, sodium battery costs are expected to match LFP costs within one year.